I have one game that is far and away the most popular thing I have ever posted to my profile. As a result, it seems that it just keeps getting downloaded at least once a week. So if you have a "hot" game, it is more long-tail than burst.
Most of my analytics say people are either looking specifically for a game I made using tags and searches, or were looking for something to play in the New category.
Like others have said, being active helps. I just keep getting into game jams. Itch.io's algorithm seems to love activity.