Why do you publish a page "in development" but disable it?
This is not how "in development" works on Itch.
If you just want an internet presence on Itch informing the world about a project being in the making, make an unattached blog post.
As soon as you have anything to show and download/play, publish it as in development, or even as prototype. Restricting a page is only good for timing a release on multiple platforms or anything of the sorts, imho.
There is no promotion on Itch, like Steam does it. It takes like 3 months to appear in related games. There is no curator input in the algorithm. It takes time to evaluate your project and that seems to be heavilty influenced by tags.
Itch's stance is to not rely on being indexed in the first place. So it follows, that they also do not care, if you have 5 minutes exposure from being on recent. Games can also be temporarily be deindexed. Updating can do that. Being indexed is just that. Being on the index. It has no bearing on the ordering.
But they do mix recent, by sorting some games as new again, when a major update devlog is made.
There are people trying to abuse the system. Some even by deleting their project and publishing it again. It is not helping, imho. It screws over any collection the game is on, and removes ratings and so on. It also makes the project and the developer look less trustworthy. Itch might ban accounts from index, that try to game the system.
Oh, and new&popular is just regular popular with different weighting in ranking. It is the same number of games in both lists.