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(+2)

Yeah, that's why I say to use a dice-rolling website or discord dicebot—the number of dice doesn't really matter then.

Here's how Chris Sims' idea works out in practice:


It gives a good curve of average results, with a difference in the story it tells in each game:


Where the 100d6 mechanic usually has a drawn-out tense ending, the token mechanic sharply curves to the end with a sudden disaster (because the probability of rolling over the number of tokens increases as tokens decrease). It can also randomly plateau earlier, like a moment of stillness, calm before the storm. It might be more swingy, but I'm not sure.

Your method is obviously gonna be a lot more consistent—you get 24-30 pulls. The action is always gonna happen over at most 6 turns. People can set exactly how many pulls they get before the risk kicks in (by changing token count) and set exactly how many pulls they get once that happens (by changing die size).

I think I still prefer mine, since it's both simple and dynamic, but the others have their advantages if people want a different story progression, more control, or for the mechanic to get out of the way until the final stretch.