I have been thinking of a way to approximate this S-shaped curve without needing tokens or software. I think rolling with advantage (roll two dice, keep highest) is a decent substitute. Closest I got is using a d100 with advantage:
- Each turn mark, how many turns have passed (this is your Counter).
- Roll a d100 with advantage (keep highest number).
- If max(2d100)<Counter -> lose; else -> keep playing.
Did some quick calculations in Excel. X-Axis is Number of Turns. Y-Axis is probability that all rolls until that turn are successes.
