I disagree. Last year's winners returned with Pigglet in Mrs Big Bad Werewolf and right now they're on 25 ratings. It's not a huge gulf and that seems easily achievable.
You also need to remember games are being rated out of 5 so no doubt the average and median rating will have some kind of bearing on the outcome.
If anything, people who are well known might have established fan bases (that they've likely spent years building) but they also have a target painted on their backs and could fall victim to trolls 1 star rating them. There are pros and cons.
In terms of the front page, Itchio seems to tailor the recommendations and such based on your browsing history so seeing as you're participating in the contest it's not surprising it's showing you jam entries.
I will say every time I view the jam all of the entries are in a randomised order and I keep spotting new entries I hadn't seen before.
It's all still to play for! :D