So I understood well enough to beat the game on the last day. The way the probability is presented feels like it's backwards though. Like, both in-game and under the hood, it feels highly likely that there's a specific time when the attack will happen, determined at the start of the day, and the "chance" is just a timer rather than any calculation of probability.
Other than that, the movement feels clunky, and it was hard to tell how to get back in the ship at first.