Nice! What is your chance of winning formula?
Hi, thanks!
So, I actually had to look at the source code to remember the formula:
- First a base probability is calculated. If I recall correctly, this is what the game displays:
self.baseProbabilityOfWinning = 50 + clamp(50 * (1 - global.betValue / global.money), 0, 49.99) - Then, behind the curtains, another probability is calculated, taking into account the chance we just calculated:
self.actualProbabilityOfWinning = self.baseProbabilityOfWinning - 15*(numberOfWins / totalNumberOfMatches) + 25 * (numberOfLosses / totalNumberOfMatches)
So, basically, if the player wins too much it becomes harder to keep winning. Also, if instead the player loses too much, it's easier to win.
Yeah, the presented probability isn't the real probability: the game makes itself easier or harder depending on how lucky or unlucky the player is. Interestingly, I think nobody noticed this!