Probability is never "correct" for an individual case. You proably never win big time in the lottery. But the one who did win, well, he did win. But his odds were still the same as yours. I am not trying to argue that someone specific is winning the lottery at life, only that it will have a payout, since the number of players is biggerly big than the probability is smallish small.
And if I had a disease with 20% death rate and a mediation with 5% death rate and 95% success rate, I would research how exactly those numbers are deduced to maybe guess my individiual risk better.
That people vastly misunderstand anything statistical and about probabililty was exposed over the last few years in abundance.
Should you not know that example , how many randomly selected people do you need for the chance of two of them sharing the same birthday being 50%? It is known as the birthday paradox.
To finish this, it seems the actual scientists working on that type of research do not believe we are a unique phenomenon. And life as found near volcanos under water and all the other extremophiles radically changed their minds about life possibilities.