Kai
- High Agility -
- High Smarts -
- Peak Trustworthiness -
Okay, so I have to admit my bias here. While Kai isn't my favorite character (that title probably goes to someone like Shin or Keiji), he's certainly up there. But what's more, he is by and far my favorite to root for in the simulations. And the reason why is, quite frankly, the organization behind the Death Game set him up to die in the Main Game.
Kai's laptop. Kai's freaking laptop, that I've mentioned over and over and over again in this post. It's true in the main story, and it's true here too: if it weren't for the laptop, Kai would almost certainly have survived the Main Game in Act 1. Yes, Sara recognized him, but that could be waived away as circumstantial evidence. And yes, the card Kai got in the Main Game wasn't ideal, but the only reason he was a candidate in the vote to begin with ties back to the laptop. And sure enough, Kai's survival here depends entirely on that laptop once again.
Going backwards for just a moment, Kai's most likely to survive the First Trial when working by himself. His training has taught him to be self-reliant, after all. But his willingness to be of assistance comes at a detriment when paired with some of the less capable participants, which accounts for quite a few of his deaths.
But when he survives the First Trial, it gets interesting. Kai relies on one of several VERY specific conditions to occur in order for him to survive. Of course, it's the best case if he finds the laptop. Not only does that mean nobody can find it, but the way Soy Toad is coded, Kai is exempt from the vote on the basis of helping the team by finding the laptop, which obviously should not be common knowledge. While that probably shouldn't be the case and instead should make him just as likely to be voted as anyone else, I like to reinterpret it like this: Kai is just so unassuming, that without the laptop, there is no reason why anybody would want him to die. This makes a lot of sense in my opinion, as he's extremely helpful and doesn't make any enemies due to his polite mannerisms and calm demeanor.
But if Kai fails to find the laptop, he still has a chance of surviving. Since the person who finds the laptop doesn't share the knowledge until after the First Vote, if that person were to die in the Pink Room, then Kai's secret is safe. Thankfully for him, Megumi is a likely candidate to find the laptop, so if Keiji's alive to vote for her, he will unknowingly play accomplice in covering up Kai's crimes. Same goes for Sara if she betrayed someone in the First Trial and gets voted for by the victim's companion.
But if that should fail and Kai has to move to his his last resort of violence, he still has a chance: the cards. The very same cards that screwed him over. I've had two games where he got the role of Keymaster. And as Lunet logged in this post that I referenced earlier, the Keymaster can never be voted out currently. If they are the target, the Sage would just reveal themselves and die for it instead. Funny enough, I've also gotten two games where he got the role of Sacrifice, but sadly neither of them amounted to a victory. In one instance, he SHOULD have been selected as most suspicious, but everyone opted to vote for Q-Taro, who had been hidden in the Red Room for most of the game, instead (this might be due to the fact that the person he had to attack being Sara, and without her brainpower, it might be a lot harder to pin him to the crime). As for another, he played the perfect game, having found his laptop before anyone else and thereby being exempt from being voted for in the Main Game. But of course, this just happens to be a game that he draws the Sacrifice card.
Anecdotes aside, I guess it is worth pointing out that I don't think Kai would strike Sara with a pan, but honestly that's a very niche situation in the first place (though it is worth noting that it occurred at least a couple times in my simulations).
All in all, Kai's journey to survive the purgatory of Act 1 is completely fascinating. That dang laptop is the cause of all his grief, and observing Act 1 over and over in simulations has made me increasingly sympathetic towards Kai's plight. He just wanted to do good by the people who he already wronged.
Gin
- Low Agility -
- Low Smarts -
- High Trustworthiness -
Poor Gin.
As you've probably noticed already in my first table, Gin's had it worst than anyone in my simulations. He can't survive any of the individual First Trials, so he's entirely reliant on a lucky draw: either one of the First Trials that you can't possibly fail (bringing the Sue Miley box or learning about the Death Game) or being partnered with someone who can help him out.
In the locker room prisoner's dilemma, almost everyone will leave him to die. Even trustworthy people like Joe will eventually start to get antsy working with such a young kid that they'll leave to save their own hide. Only the most trustworthy of people, like Kazumi and Keiji, can save him in this game. And yet this is one of Gin's best trials! That just goes to show how difficult it is for him to survive the First Trial.
Gin's best odds of survival are in the crushing bed. If paired with someone who insists that he free himself, like Kazumi, he will be spared. But even if paired with someone selfish like Sara or Megumi, he'll still be saved as long as they're smart enough to solve the puzzle afterwards.
With how much I'm focused on the First Trial, you think he'd have it easy from there, but nope. You notice how I keep mentioning that his best odds of surviving are in being paired with Kazumi? Well, even if he gets a lucky draw like that, if he is responsible for their death, as would happen in the crushing bed, Gin would simply incur the wrath of their companion (in this example, Nao) should they survive the First Trial. Despite his pure heart and selflessness, his inability to protect the people who take the time to help him often leads to his death. This goes doubly so if he tries to save someone who gets trapped in the cage. This means that even in the Main Game, he is always a step away from certain doom.
As a frame of reference for just how often I've seen him die, it took me 20 simulations for him to survive a single time. Twice, he made it all the way to the Main Game with no hiccups, and he drew the Sacrifice in the worst possible luck. It made me suspicious that Gin was programmed to die. It's THAT bad.
What I took away from Gin is that it's really easy to think he can do anything. So much happens to him over the course of the story and he always bounces back. There's something infectious about his youthful optimism and noble bravery. But all of these things we've seen from Gin were quickly learned over the course of the Death Game. Before all of it, Gin is just a vulnerable kid who leaned on Kazumi and others until he could stand on his own two feet. I guess the Gin we see in YTTD had one-in-a-million luck that he got to work with so many people he could trust.
Kazumi
- High Agility -
- Peak Smarts -
- Peak Trustworthiness -
AAAAH, a suspicious character appeared! ... Oh, it's just you, Kazumi. Dang, you startled me!
The fact that Kazumi can survive 50% of the time is, quite honestly, baffling to me. He's just so nice!
The reason for most of Kazumi's deaths should be pretty obvious: he's selfless to a fault and will always look out for his students. This means that he is extremely likely to die in the First Trial if paired with someone else. His willingness to spare himself for the youth demonstrates how strongly he believes in his values. Characters like Kazumi demonstrate that Death Games aren't always about survival, but about being true to yourself, even in the worst possible conditions.
The silver lining about the First Trial is that his amazing stats allow him to survive all of the individual tasks except for the wallcrush. He's smart enough to find the gun with the wrong bullet. And just imagine my surprise when I saw him run through the swinging axes for the first time!
Should Kazumi best the First Trial, what helps Kazumi's survival is his overwhelming charisma. Due to his likelihood to help others survive their First Trial, he is a strong candidate to play the challenger in Russian Roulette and his intelligence allows him to find Kai's laptop in many simulations. Add in his surprisingly athletic abilities, and he can also save whoever's trapped in the cage. This gives him three whole chances to prove himself before the Main Game. Not only that, but since it's literally impossible for him to kill anyone in the First Trial (I can't think of a single possible scenario that could allow it happen), that means he's effectively immune in the First Vote.
Honestly, the only things that stand in his way after First Trial are Nao's death and the Sacrifice Card. While at first, I felt it was out of character for Kazumi to want to kill whoever let Nao die, I started to think of it another way: as a teacher, Kazumi wouldn't want to see the other kids in this Death Game be around a person who killed someone that he KNOWS is good.
But even if Kazumi makes some enemies by voting someone out in the First Vote for killing Nao, I can't stress enough how amazing it is to have three chances at being exempt from being the majority vote in the Main Game. Unfortunately, the Sacrifice card can still ruin his day, whether played on him or played successfully by someone else. But if that's Kazumi's biggest concern at that point in the game, then he's sitting pretty.
Alice
- High Agility -
- Low Smarts -
- Low Trustworthiness -
All of this time, the person who's perplexed me the most is this man right here. All this time, one question kept nagging at me.
"If Alice functions just like Q-Taro and Naomichi, how come they survive so much more than him?"
And when I came to this section, it hit me: it all has to do with heart.
When discussing Q-Taro, I mentioned my theory of there being a priority system in terms of "who betrays whom." While I initially anticipated Alice's as being among the top, I didn't realize just how many people are more resolute in their selfishness than him. Q-Taro, Naomichi, Sara, Megumi, and maybe even Mai. That second he takes to hesitate on whether to run out on his opponent in the locker room prisoner's dilemma is all it takes for Sara to decide that her survival is more important. It's very easy to see Alice as selfish, given some of his actions, but it's worth considering how many of his actions are determined out fear, as opposed to genuine malice.
The other thing that holds Alice back from being as genuinely threatening as the jocks is his bond with Reko. His willingness to use the First Vote to kill whoever betrayed her in the First Trial makes him even more likely to be come a target in the Main Game. And because of his prisoner's garb, he has no shot at redeeming himself by being selected as challenger in Russian Roulette. Because honestly, who in their right mind would give the convicted murderer a gun in a Death Game?
So between Alice's hesitation in the First Trial, increased likelihood to make enemies, and inability to demonstrate his trustworthiness in the Blue Room, these seeming insignificant differences add up to some astounding consequences.
Ranmaru
- High Agility -
- Mid Smarts -
- High Trustworthiness -
Unsurprisingly, Ranmaru plays one of the most plain and uninteresting games of everyone here. But that's exactly what makes him so special!
Honestly, it's astounding how successful he is in the simulations, considering how many pitfalls he has to endure. His average intelligence makes him inconsistent at clearing First Trial puzzles like the white room handcuffs and gun selection. Not only that, but it makes him unable to save his partner in the crushing bed, leading to a pretty high killing rate for a guy with such high trustworthiness.
Speaking of trust, it can be kind of hard to gauge how trustworthy he is, because a lot of his First Trials seem contradictory. On one hand, he is very lax in the crushing bed, willingly giving up his key or turning it down when offered, implying a high level of selflessness. On the other, he is willing to walk out on his teammate in the locker room prisoner's dilemma if he can tell it'll take too long to solve the puzzle. So which is the real Ranmaru?
If I had to summarize his behavior in one word, it would definitely be practical. Unlike a lot of the people here, who have outstanding skills that they can always rely on, Ranmaru's just... average. But unlike those other people, who go in headstrong without the self-reflection necessary to see when they're outmatched, Ranmaru knows exactly what he can and can't handle. So in the crushing bed, Ranmaru knows that he wouldn't be able to help his cellmate, which is why he turns down the key or offers it up himself. And as for the locker room, Ranmaru knows that if they're not able to solve the puzzle, then either he walks out on them or they walk out on him. And while he's very selfless, Ranmaru's not all that enthusiastic about being murdered.
Because he's practical.
Now, I speak a lot about how surprising it is to me that Ranmaru manages to do so well in the simulations. But when looking into what helps improve his odds at survival past the First Trial, it's really straightforward. Ranmaru is capable of saving whoever is stuck in the cage, leading to the occasional exemption from being voted in the Main Game to make his life easier. His inability to get out of the First Trial first makes him less likely to make enemies, as does his lack of desire to vote for others in the Pink Room. So as long as his First Trial goes okay and he doesn't incur anyone's wrath in the First Vote, his game is typically smooth sailing. Honestly, what holds him back from having the best survival rate is bad luck. Dude just kept pulling the Sacrifice card in my simulations.
All that being said, it's pretty impressive to tie with the main character. Ranmaru is remarkably boring, but something about that is oddly refreshing in a Death Game as wacky as this.
Hinako
- Low Agility -
- Mid Smarts -
- Peak Trustworthiness -
Of all the Death Game participants, Hinako is by and far the biggest question mark. If you don't believe me, just look at her face! ... Or y'know, just imagine it...
The Hinako we meet in Act 3 seems to be the complete opposite of the one seen here. "Hinako" is quick, crafty, and will tell you outright not to trust anybody if you want to make it out alive. But from watching these simulations, we can observe that the real Hinako is just a regular girl, with no outstanding features beyond her big heart.
It makes me wonder if the personality we see in "Hinako" was meant to be the exact opposite. That way, the person who shared the First Trial with her in YTTD wouldn't recognize who she is. I wonder if that was Lunet's reasoning to imagine her in this way. Personally, I think that makes an awful lot of sense.
For a completely ordinary middle schooler, she performs really well in the simulations, surviving more than half the time. Compare her to her peers, Kanna and Gin, and that is an astounding accomplishment for a girl so young. From comparing their stats and behavior, there's only one difference that sets her apart, but clearly it's a significant one.
In the crushing bed, all three children will offer up their key to their cellmate. But if the cellmate expresses indifference, Kanna and Gin will free themselves. Hinako, meanwhile, will free her cellmate anyways, as that is the most selfless thing to do. This might sound counterintuitive to survival, but if Hinako's cellmate is not already begging for the key, then that means they're someone who is pretty trustworthy. This means that they'll probably return the favor and free Hinako as well.
Where this makes a massive difference is in the First Vote. As sweet and Kanna and Gin are, they have unwittingly caused the deaths of a lot of innocent people. This makes them prime targets by the companions of the participants that they couldn't protect. Meanwhile, Hinako's saintly kindness allows her to circumvent that entirely, as she is highly unlikely to cause the death of another participant.
One of the things that I love most about Soy Toad is discovering how these seemingly trivial differences hold drastic consequences for the participants. Hinako's above and beyond selflessness is a rare example of good deeds paying off in the Death Game.