Heyo everyone! For anyone reading this, thank you for taking the time to check out this post. I hope I can make it worth your while.

I thought this was such a fun concept for a game, so I decided to take detailed notes on every game I've ever played of SOYTTD (which I will henceforth be referring to as "Soy Toad"). And I'd love to share some of my findings because I think there are some really stellar results.

For starters, I'd like to clarify that the data I've gathered is from exactly 50 games of Soy Toad. I started playing  on July 27th of 2024, and this is in reference to the  1-2 version with the "Can Sacrifice Win?" setting set to ON. I'd also like to take a moment to say that I will be using the names of the characters as they appear in Soy Toad, so Kazumi Mishima will be called Kazumi.  Oh, and obviously SPOILER WARNING (pls play YTTD, I'd hate for you to get spoiled from this post lol)!

With that out of the way,  the first set of findings I'd like to display is the survival rate of all of the participants:

Now I wanna give some credit to my girlfriend here, because she urged me to summarize my findings in a tier list. And let's be honest here: who DOESN'T like a good tier list? So here you go: a  visual summary of the data above!

Absolutely striking.

So before I dive into an individual breakdown of each character, I'd like to be a bit nerdy here and compare my results with the data that LunetOnItch (the developer) posted here. This will be a ranking of how far the survival stats in my simulations compare with the aggregate results of the 20,000 trials that Lunet (may I call you Lunet?) had in theirs. A positive number indicates that a character was more likely to survive in my simulations, whereas a negative number indicates they were more likely to survive in Lunet's simulations.

Damn, Mai lowkey the GOAT? Well, yes and no.

Now I gotta admit, the wide discrepancy is some of these stats is kinda wild. But I'm sure with more simulations, my numbers would get closer and closer to Lunet's due to The Law of Large Numbers. In any case, the reason why this table was important enough to include is:

1.) I spent entire minutes of my life doing the calculations one-by-one on a weekday, so they  BETTER be worth it!

2.) It'll help contextualize why some of my individual character analyses might defer from Lunet's, or yours, or anyone else who plays this game.

Now it's time to get to what I think will be the most interesting portion: the Participant Analyses! Along with a description of their "playstyle" and their win conditions (AKA "what needs to happen for them to survive"), I also rated the three stats that impact their performance in the First Trial.  Those stats, in order, are:

1.) Agility: How fast can they move? Relevant for the wall-crushing and axe-swinging trials. (I'm pretty sure it's also used to save the person in the cage after the First Vote in the Pink Room.)

2.) Smarts: How good are they at puzzles? Relevant for the crushing bed, gun selection, white room handcuff, and locker room prisoner's dilemma.

3.) Trustworthiness: How much can people trust this person? The lower this rating, the more likely they are to betray in the First Trial. Relevant for the  crushing bed and locker room prisoner's dilemma.

All three of  these stats will be rated on a scale of Low, Mid, High, and Peak. Low being the lowest, and Peak being the best.

So at long last, let's take a look at our colorful cast:

Sara

- Mid Agility -

- High Smarts -

- Low Trustworthiness -

It's worth noting that the personality of these characters is as they would appear BEFORE the Death Game. And nowhere is that more relevant than one Sara Chidouin. Unlike how many of you (myself included) have played her as a heroic saint   in  YTTD, we've heard from various accounts in the story that describe  Sara as cold and calculating, with the unquestionable willpower and unfathomable charisma to make anyone yield to her bidding. And that monstrosity is the Sara we see here.

Sara will always betray, and the only people that she cares about are herself and Joe. While her high smarts and willingness to betray her opponent in the blink of an eye help her survive the First Trial more often than a majority of the cast,  her low trustworthiness is a double-edged sword. She's likely to escape faster than anyone else as a result of her quick work betraying her friends, locking herself in the Red Room and becoming an easy suspect for the Main Game. This has made her the unfortunate victim of many Main Game votes, as well as a revenge vote-out in the Pink  Room if she happens to kill someone's companion in the First Trial.

Despite all of this, Sara is just as likely to become the hero, being a strong candidate for being the challenger in the Russian Roulette and  finding Kai's laptop.  These contradictory playstyles make her really fun to watch, as it's a crapshoot of which Sara you're going to see.

Joe

- High Agility -

- High Smarts -

- High Trustworthiness -

Looking at his stats, it's no wonder Joe has the highest survival rating: dude's good at everything! His athleticism allows him to survive the axe room--a feat that even Sara can't achieve--and his trustworthiness makes him a whole lot less enemies, meaning he'll almost never be voted out in the Pink Room.

That said, being a good guy comes with its drawbacks. More than anything, what kills Joe most is the locker room prisoner's dilemma. If he's paired with Q-Taro, or Alice, or hell, even SARA, he's dead. And yes, Sara would leave him to die. While I can't say it for certain as it never happened in my simulations, remember that the person doesn't KNOW who is with them right away, so Sara could very well walk out without knowing who she just killed. Imagine her trauma if THAT happened.

Anyways, while Joe can be quite  vulnerable in the Locker Room, he does much  better in the crushing bed. If he starts with the key, he'll opt with saving himself over giving it to his cellmate. While that might not sound trustworthy, he's good to his word and will use his smarts to get them out of their binds, something that others can't always do for him. What's also interesting is that in the locker room, there are some people with whom he'd love to help, like Gin or Anzu, but eventually he'll realize they can't solve their end of the puzzle and will walk out so that at least one of them lives. It's a blemish in Joe's otherwise stellar moral code, but at least he tried to help.

In short, Joe is by and far one of the most likely to survive the First Trial due to his amazing stats. The only things that he can't do guaranteed on his own are the gun selection and closing wall trials, but only a select few can do those.  And if Sara dies in the First Trial  and Joe opts to kill someone to have his revenge in the First Vote, that does make him an early candidate to die in the Main Game. 

Oh, and can I just say that he's arguably the most likely to be voted as the challenger in the Russian Roulette? Everyone trusts this man so much, they'll willingly give him a gun.

Joe fans eatin' real good tonight.

Keiji

- Peak Agility -

- High Smarts -

- Peak Trustworthiness -

Y'know, you'd think with such awesome stats, he'd survive a lot more than exactly half the time. Right? Let's break it down real quick.

First off, Keiji is a lot more lax in the crushing bed than Joe, willingly handing off the   key   to his        cellmate and oftentimes sealing his fate in the process. What's more, his fixation on killing Megumi in the Pink Room, while TOTALLY WARRANTED, often makes him an unpopular guy in the Main Game. As a result, he is one of the most likely candidates to be voted out in the Main Game, if he even makes it that far.

Now obviously, I do need to take a second to address the elephant in the room: Soy Toad allows it so that he can be voted as challenger in the Russian Roulette. But as we all know, dude is TERRIFIED of guns and would rather let an inexperienced schoolgirl fire one than wield it himself.  I'll circle back to this  much later, but what I'll say for right now is that I mostly agree that he should probably be removed from the list of likely candidates. It happened twice in my fifty simulations, so that's pretty significant.

So while Keiji is one of the most likely people to be betrayed in the First Trial or voted out in the Main Game, there are some instances that can drastically increase his odds of survival. If Megumi  were to die in the First Trial or leave early and lock herself in the Red Room, Keiji has no opportunity to vote her out and make himself Public Enemy No. 1. What's more, if he finds the laptop, saves the person trapped in the cage, or *shudders* steps up and holds the gun for God knows what reason, he becomes exempt from the  pool of possible suspects in the Main Game, even if he killed Megumi in front of everyone.

It just goes to show that nobody knows whether he's friend or foe, as his helpful investigative prowess and dark past tell two very different stories.

As a footnote, Keiji was the first person EVER in my simulations who survived the wallcrush room. Before he managed it, I was starting to think that room was guaranteed death. I believe he's one of only two people capable of surviving it. Can you guess who the other one is?

Kanna

- Low Agility -

- Mid Smarts -

- High Trustworthiness -

It's nice to see Kanna have some First Trials go better in the simulations, at least.

What you see with Kanna is what you get. She's doomed in the athletic challenges, and isn't great with puzzles that she has to complete  on her own. YTTD leads us to believe for most of the game that all she's good for is taking orders, but is that all she can do?

It's not as obvious as some of the other stats, but her mid smarts ranking is actually pretty big for her. As I said earlier, she's not great with puzzles on her own. So if she's told to free herself by a selfless cellmate in the crushing bed, they can't help her with the puzzle since they're stuck in a bed and can't see everything that's in the room, leading to her being unable to save them.  No, where Kanna's intelligence really shines is in the locker room prisoner's dilemma.

When paired with patient saints like Kugie, Shin, Kazumi, and Keiji, they trust her enough to complete her end of the puzzle, even though she might work slower than most of the grown-ups. I think this is actually a really sweet detail, and is a great example of her character.  Kanna is a lot more capable than people give her credit for.

Q-Taro

- High Agility -

- Low Smarts -

- Low Trustworthiness -

"Might makes right" is a saying that perfectly encapsulates Q-Taro in a nutshell. He will betray til the cows come home, and if you're mad about that, you should've saved yourself first.

Q-Taro's athleticism makes him a shoe-in for challenges like the axe room or saving someone in the cage. But his lack of intelligence makes the white room handcuffs a death sentence. Pretty ironic, given he could probably tear off the whole wall, let alone a measly handcuff, with one thrust of his gorilla arms.

But I digress. I'm not sure exactly how  characters are prioritized in terms of "who betrays whom" when two seedy characters interact. For example, how does Soy Toad determine who lives if Q-Taro and Sara--two people who always betray--are paired up in the locker room prisoner's dilemma. Well, my theory is that  there is a direct priority system where certain characters always beat out certain others. And considering that Q-Taro walked out on  Sara in one of my simulations and Naomichi twice, I'm pretty confident in saying that Q-Taro has the most willpower of anyone here. And if not, he's certainly Top 3.

To be honest, Q-Taro was actually the frontrunner in survival percentage for the longest time in a close race with Reko until Joe came out of nowhere and blew them both out of the water. Even if he's not on top anymore, it's all but certain that Q-Taro has made a LOT of enemies of the many simulations. The people he's killed get him killed often in the First Vote, and his isolation in the Red Room makes him a favorable target in the Main Game.

Being the strongest does not make you invincible.

Shin

- Low Agility -

- Peak Smarts -

- Peak Trustworthiness -

Here's someone I've been dying to talk about. How do I even begin?

Well for starters, I'll be the bad guy and say it: I sorta get why he had no chance of winning the Death Game. Look at those stats again. Peak  Trustworthiness. I knew he wasn't always the complete nightmare that we saw in the main story, but I never realized how sweet of a guy he can be. Or maybe how much of a people-pleasing pushover he is.

Regardless of how you view Shin's strategy in YTTD, in Soy Toad, he  plays the game more honestly than anybody here. Unfortunately, this means he gets betrayed a LOT, or gives his key to a cellmate in the crushing bed who's just not smart enough to return the favor.

When he does survive the First Trial,  he has a lot going for him, being a likely candidate to find Kai's laptop or, surprisingly, be trusted with a gun in Russian Roulette. Real different from the Shin we know, huh? These strong possibilities make it very likely that he'll be exempt from being voted out in the Main Game, which is great for him. That should mean that so long as he survives the First Trial, the rest should be smooth sailing, right?

You'd think so, but not quite. Unfortunately for Shin, his lack of agility isn't just a liability in the First Trial; it means he could be the cause of someone's death when they're trapped in the cage. I've had at least a couple games where this has happened, and I'm pretty sure at least one of them have led to his death in the Main Game. That one bad stat is a lot worst than it lets on.

But circling back to what I mentioned earlier, it's no wonder Shin felt he needed to abandon his entire sense of self to stand a chance in the Death Game. He's not just "nice," he is kind to the core. And I guess you could argue that kindness that engrained isn't something that can be so easily abandoned without catastrophic consequences.

Reko

- High  Agility -

-  Mid Smarts -

- High Trustworthiness -

I feel so bad for underestimating Reko. Not only did she survive my first simulation, she  survived seven times IN A ROW, longer than anybody else, before dying in the eighth cycle. Not only that, but out of the three victories by Sacrifice in my simulations, two of them selected Reko to survive along with them (those people being Kugie in the very first game and, unsurprisingly, Alice). So what makes her so likely to survive?

Well, as the Sacrifice example may imply, she has a lot of influence.  Her preexisting relationship with Alice, while one-sided, means she already has an advantage over a lot of the others in the Death Game. And hers is one of the only two where their death doesn't ruin her game (the other being   Sara if Kai dies), seeing as their relationship is not yet mended at this point in time.  Additionally, her high chance of saving people who might not be able to save themselves in the First Trial means that she holds a lot of influence later on.

The significance of this is best exemplified when determining the challenger in Russian Roulette. I have a theory that being locked in the Blue Room with someone who can vouch for your trustworthiness makes you more likely to get picked, which would explain why Reko has been selected numerous times to be challenger in my simulations. This, combined with her ability to save whoever gets trapped in the cage, makes her extremely likely to be exempt from being voted out in the Main Game.

Of course, much like other trustworthy people, her kindness has been taken advantage of in quite a few simulations. But when her benevolence is rewarded, few have a more overwhelming victory than Reko Yabusame!

Kai

- High Agility -

- High Smarts -

- Peak Trustworthiness -

Okay, so I have to admit my bias here. While Kai isn't my favorite character (that title probably goes to someone like Shin or Keiji), he's certainly up there. But what's more, he is by and far my favorite to root for in the simulations. And the reason why is, quite frankly, the organization behind the Death Game set him up to die in the Main Game.

Kai's laptop. Kai's freaking laptop, that I've mentioned over and over and over again in this post. It's true in the main story, and it's true here too: if it weren't for the laptop, Kai would almost certainly have survived the Main Game in Act 1. Yes, Sara recognized him, but that could be waived away as circumstantial evidence. And yes, the card Kai got in the Main Game wasn't ideal, but the only reason he was a candidate in the vote to begin with ties back to the laptop. And sure enough, Kai's survival here depends entirely on that laptop once again.

Going backwards for just a moment, Kai's most likely to survive the First Trial when  working by himself. His training has taught him to be self-reliant, after all. But his willingness to be of assistance comes at a detriment when paired with some of the less capable participants, which accounts for quite a few of his deaths.

But when he survives the First Trial, it gets interesting. Kai relies on one of several VERY specific conditions to occur in order for him to survive. Of course, it's the best case if he finds the laptop. Not only does that mean nobody can find it, but the way Soy Toad is coded, Kai is exempt from the vote on the basis of helping the team by finding the laptop, which obviously should not be common knowledge. While that probably shouldn't be the case and instead should make him just as likely to be voted as anyone else, I like to reinterpret it like this: Kai is just so unassuming, that without the laptop, there is no reason why anybody would want him to die. This makes a lot of sense in my opinion, as he's extremely helpful and doesn't make any enemies due to his polite mannerisms and calm demeanor.

But if Kai fails to find the laptop, he still has a chance of surviving. Since the person who finds the laptop doesn't share the knowledge until after the First Vote,  if that person were to die in the Pink  Room, then Kai's secret is safe. Thankfully for him, Megumi is a likely candidate to find the laptop, so if Keiji's alive to vote for her, he will unknowingly play accomplice in covering up Kai's crimes. Same goes for Sara if she  betrayed someone in the First Trial and gets voted for by the victim's companion.

But if that should fail and Kai has to move to his his last resort of violence, he still has a chance: the cards. The very same cards that screwed him over. I've had two games where he got the role of Keymaster. And  as Lunet logged in this post that I referenced earlier,  the Keymaster can never be voted out currently. If they are the target, the Sage would just reveal themselves and die for it instead. Funny enough, I've also gotten two games where he got the role of Sacrifice, but sadly neither of them amounted to a victory. In one instance, he SHOULD have been selected as most suspicious, but everyone opted to vote for Q-Taro, who had been hidden in the Red Room for most of the game, instead (this might be due to the fact that the person he had to attack being Sara, and without her brainpower, it might be a lot harder to pin him to the crime). As for another, he played the perfect game, having found his laptop before anyone else and thereby being exempt from being voted for in the Main Game. But of course, this just happens to be a game that he draws the Sacrifice card.

Anecdotes aside, I guess it is worth pointing out that I don't think Kai would strike Sara with a pan, but honestly that's a very niche situation in the first place (though it is worth noting that it occurred at least a couple times in my simulations).

All in all,  Kai's journey to survive the purgatory of Act 1 is completely fascinating. That dang laptop is the cause of all his grief, and observing Act 1 over and over in simulations has made me increasingly sympathetic towards Kai's plight. He just wanted to do good by the people who he already wronged.

Gin

- Low Agility -

- Low Smarts -

- High Trustworthiness -

Poor Gin.

As you've probably noticed already in my first table, Gin's had it worst than anyone in my simulations. He can't survive any of the individual First Trials, so he's entirely reliant on a lucky draw: either one of the First Trials that you can't possibly fail (bringing the Sue Miley box or learning about the Death Game) or being partnered with someone who can help him out.

In the locker room prisoner's dilemma, almost everyone will leave him to die. Even trustworthy people like Joe will eventually start to get antsy working with such a young kid that they'll leave to save their own hide. Only the most trustworthy of people, like Kazumi and Keiji, can save him in this game. And yet this is one of Gin's best trials! That just goes to show how difficult it is for him to survive the First Trial.

Gin's best odds of survival are in the  crushing bed. If paired with someone who insists that he free himself, like Kazumi, he will be spared. But even if paired with someone selfish like Sara or Megumi, he'll still be saved as long as they're smart enough to solve the puzzle afterwards.

With how much I'm focused on the First Trial, you think he'd have it easy from there, but nope. You notice how I keep mentioning that his best odds of surviving are in being paired with Kazumi? Well, even if he gets a lucky draw like that, if he is responsible for their death, as would happen in the crushing bed, Gin would simply incur the wrath of their companion (in this example, Nao) should they survive the First Trial. Despite his pure heart and selflessness, his inability to protect the people who take the time to help him often leads to his death. This goes doubly so if he tries to save someone who gets trapped in the cage. This means that even in the Main Game, he is always a step away from certain doom.

As a frame of reference for just how often I've seen him die, it took me 20 simulations for him to survive a single time. Twice, he made it all the way to the Main Game with no hiccups, and he drew the Sacrifice in the worst possible luck. It made me suspicious that Gin was programmed to die. It's THAT bad.

What I took away from Gin is that it's really easy to think he can do anything.   So much happens to him over the course of the story and he always bounces back. There's something infectious about his youthful optimism and noble bravery. But all of these things we've seen from Gin were quickly learned over the course of the Death Game. Before all of it, Gin is just a vulnerable kid who leaned on Kazumi and others until he could stand on his own two feet. I guess the Gin we see in YTTD had one-in-a-million luck that he got to work with so many people he could trust.

Kazumi

- High Agility -

- Peak Smarts -

- Peak Trustworthiness -

AAAAH, a suspicious character appeared! ... Oh, it's just you, Kazumi. Dang, you startled me!

The fact that Kazumi can   survive 50% of the time is, quite honestly, baffling to me. He's just so nice!

The reason for most of Kazumi's deaths should be pretty obvious: he's selfless to a fault and will always look out for his students. This means that he is extremely likely to die in the First Trial if paired with someone else.  His willingness to spare himself for the youth demonstrates how strongly he believes in his values. Characters like Kazumi demonstrate that Death Games aren't always about survival, but about being true to yourself, even in the worst possible conditions.

The silver lining about the First Trial is that his amazing stats allow him to survive all of the individual tasks except for the wallcrush.  He's smart enough to find the gun with the wrong bullet. And just imagine my surprise when I saw him run through the swinging axes for the first time!

Should Kazumi best the First Trial, what helps Kazumi's survival is his overwhelming charisma. Due to his likelihood to help others survive their First Trial, he is a strong candidate to play the challenger in Russian Roulette and his intelligence allows him to find Kai's laptop in many simulations. Add in his surprisingly athletic abilities, and he can also save whoever's trapped in the cage. This gives him three whole chances to prove himself before the Main Game. Not only that, but since it's literally impossible for him to kill anyone in the First Trial (I can't think of a single possible scenario that could allow it happen), that means he's effectively immune in the First Vote.

Honestly, the only things that stand in his way after  First Trial are Nao's death and the Sacrifice Card. While at first, I felt it was out of character for Kazumi to want to kill whoever let Nao die, I started to think of it another way: as a teacher, Kazumi wouldn't want to see the other kids in this Death Game be around a person who killed someone that he KNOWS is good.

But even if Kazumi makes some enemies by voting someone out in the First Vote for killing Nao, I can't stress enough how amazing it is to have three chances at being exempt from being the majority vote in the Main Game. Unfortunately, the Sacrifice card can still ruin his day, whether played on him or played successfully by someone else. But if that's Kazumi's biggest concern at that point in the game,  then he's sitting pretty.

Alice

- High Agility -

-  Low Smarts -

- Low Trustworthiness -

All of this time, the person who's perplexed me the most is this man right here.  All this time, one question kept nagging at me.

"If Alice functions just like Q-Taro and Naomichi, how come they survive so much more than him?"

And when I came to this section, it hit me: it all has to do with heart.

When discussing Q-Taro, I mentioned my theory of there being a priority system in terms of "who betrays whom." While I initially anticipated Alice's as being among the top, I didn't realize just how many people are more resolute in their selfishness than him. Q-Taro, Naomichi, Sara, Megumi, and maybe even Mai. That second he takes to hesitate on whether to run out on his opponent in the locker room prisoner's dilemma is all it takes for Sara to decide that her survival is more important. It's very easy to see Alice as selfish, given some of his actions, but it's worth considering how many of his actions are determined out fear, as opposed to genuine malice.

The other thing that holds Alice back from being as genuinely threatening as the jocks is his bond with Reko. His willingness to use the First Vote to kill whoever betrayed her in the First Trial  makes him even more likely to be come a target in the Main Game. And because of his prisoner's garb, he has no shot at redeeming himself by being selected as challenger in Russian Roulette. Because honestly, who in their right mind would give the convicted murderer a gun in a Death Game?

So between Alice's hesitation in the First Trial, increased likelihood to make enemies, and inability to demonstrate his trustworthiness in the Blue Room, these seeming insignificant differences add up to some astounding consequences.

Ranmaru

- High Agility -

- Mid Smarts -

- High Trustworthiness -

Unsurprisingly, Ranmaru plays one of the most plain and uninteresting games of everyone here. But that's exactly what makes him so special!

Honestly, it's astounding how successful he is in the simulations, considering how many pitfalls he has to endure. His average intelligence makes him inconsistent at  clearing  First Trial puzzles like the white room handcuffs and gun selection. Not only that, but it makes him unable to save his partner in the crushing bed, leading to a pretty high killing rate for a guy with such high trustworthiness.

Speaking of trust, it can be kind of hard to gauge how trustworthy he is, because a lot of his First Trials seem contradictory. On one hand, he is very lax in the crushing bed, willingly giving up his key or turning it down when offered, implying a high level of selflessness. On the  other, he is willing to walk out on his teammate in the locker room prisoner's dilemma if he can tell it'll take too long to solve the puzzle. So which is the real Ranmaru?

If I had to summarize his behavior in one word, it would definitely be practical. Unlike a lot of the people here, who have outstanding skills that they can always rely on, Ranmaru's just... average. But unlike those other people, who go in headstrong without the self-reflection necessary to see when they're outmatched, Ranmaru knows exactly what he can and can't handle. So in the crushing bed, Ranmaru  knows that he wouldn't be able to help his cellmate, which is why he turns down the key or offers it up himself. And as for the locker room, Ranmaru knows that if they're not able to solve the puzzle, then either he walks out on them or they walk out on him. And while he's very selfless, Ranmaru's not all that enthusiastic about being murdered.

Because he's practical.

Now, I speak a lot about how surprising it is to me that Ranmaru manages to do so well in the simulations. But when looking into what helps improve his odds at survival past the First Trial, it's really straightforward. Ranmaru  is capable of saving whoever is stuck in the cage, leading to the occasional exemption from being voted in the Main Game to make his life easier. His inability to get out of the First Trial first makes him less likely to make enemies, as does his lack of desire to vote for others in the Pink Room. So as long as his First Trial goes okay and he doesn't incur anyone's wrath in the First Vote, his game is typically smooth sailing.  Honestly, what holds him back from having the best survival rate is bad luck. Dude just kept pulling the Sacrifice card in my simulations.

All that being said, it's pretty impressive to tie with the main character. Ranmaru is remarkably boring, but something about that is oddly refreshing in a Death Game as wacky as this.  

Hinako

- Low Agility -

- Mid Smarts -

- Peak Trustworthiness -

Of all the Death Game participants, Hinako is by and far the biggest question mark. If you don't believe me, just look at her face! ... Or y'know, just imagine it...

The Hinako we meet in Act 3 seems to be the complete opposite of the one seen here. "Hinako" is quick, crafty, and will tell you outright not to trust anybody if you want to make it out alive. But from watching these simulations, we can observe that the real Hinako is just a regular girl, with no outstanding features beyond her big heart.

It makes me wonder if the personality we see in "Hinako" was meant to be the exact opposite. That way, the person who shared the First Trial with her in YTTD wouldn't recognize who she is. I wonder if that was Lunet's reasoning to imagine her in this way. Personally, I think that makes an awful lot of sense.

For a completely ordinary middle schooler, she performs really well in the simulations, surviving more than half the time. Compare her to her peers, Kanna and Gin, and that is an astounding accomplishment for a girl so young.  From comparing their stats and behavior, there's only one difference that sets her apart, but clearly it's a significant one.

In the crushing bed, all three children will offer up their key to their cellmate. But if the cellmate expresses indifference, Kanna and Gin will free themselves. Hinako, meanwhile, will free her cellmate anyways, as that is the most selfless thing to do. This might sound counterintuitive to survival, but if Hinako's cellmate is not already begging for the key, then that means they're someone who is pretty trustworthy. This means that they'll probably return the favor and free Hinako as well.

Where this makes a massive difference is in the First Vote. As sweet and Kanna and Gin are, they have unwittingly caused the deaths of a lot of innocent people. This makes them prime targets by the companions of the participants that they couldn't protect. Meanwhile, Hinako's saintly kindness allows her to circumvent that entirely, as she is highly unlikely to cause the death of another participant.

One of the things that I love most about Soy Toad is discovering how these seemingly trivial differences hold drastic consequences for the participants. Hinako's above and beyond selflessness is a rare example of good  deeds paying off in the Death Game.

Naomichi

- High Agility -

-Low Smarts -

- Low Trustworthiness -

I've talked about Naomichi a lot in the previous sections due to his shared behaviors with Q-Taro and Alice. So rather than repeating all of that, I'd like to delve into what makes Naomichi stand apart.

What most shocked me about watching the boxer in the simulations is seeing just how often he was voted as challenger in Russian Roulette. On one hand, it's a no brainer; it's hard to say no to a guy in a Death Game who could kill you with his bare hands.   But the fact that Naomichi was selected at least four times in my simulations suggests that there's more to it than that.

If I had to place a guess on why people are so willing to vote for him, it's that he's calm, steady, and logical. He doesn't present himself as a goofball like Q-Taro or have Alice's temper. He's cold, but predictable. That might be all it takes for the other participants to be content with him being challenger.

This vital difference gives him a unique niche from the other brawny boys. Of course, Q-Taro ekes out a narrow lead in the survival rates, but that can be chalked up entirely to the two instances in which the two were paired up in the locker room prisoner's dilemma. As I said in Q-Taro's section, the baseball player's willpower is unrivaled, and both times he killed Naomichi in that very game.

Underneath all of Naomichi's cutthroat indifference, he hides a bit more hesitance than Q-Taro to hurt others for his own survival.

Mai

- Mid Agility -

- Mid Smarts -

- Low Trustworthiness -

Here's another person who I criminally underestimated. I've seen her betray and kill countless people in the simulations,  yet she stands on top among all of the people with low trustworthiness. How could that be?

Well, first I should mention that among all of the participants in the Death Game, Mai's results  deviate the furthest between my simulations and Lunet. While Mai ties for 2nd in survival rate on my list, she's placed solidly at 14th for the developer! So while I rave about how unexpectedly brilliant she is, it's important to note this inconsistency between our data.

My guess as to why Mai outplaced Sara, Q-Taro, and Naomichi comes down to the Red Room. While Mai has spent her fair share of simulations there, it doesn't compare to how often the others clear their First Trial first and get locked in the Red Room for their efforts. This isolates them for the majority of the first floor, making them an early target in the Main Game.  Due to this, Mai is able to blend in with the pack.  Unlike the others, who are unapologetically looking out for themselves, Mai hides her self-preservation behind the mask of being a cute, bubbly personality.

I think this makes a lot from what we've seen from her in YTTD. With so many dangerous-looking people around, Mai is far from the first person on anyone's radar. This makes it a natural strategy for her to  go along with the group and pretend to be part of the pack. Watching this adaption work out time and time again in the simulations has honestly made me respect her hustle. I'll finish a Main Game, verify everyone who survived, and SURPRISE--Mai's there, and she's so subtle that I completely forgot her killing someone in the First Trial.

Anzu

- Low Agility -

- Low Smarts -

- Mid Trustworthiness -

And speaking of deviance,  here's the other person whose data holds the widest discrepancy between mine and Lunet's.  While it's true that she displayed a 12.31% greater probability to survive in Lunet's  simulations, I have to go with the data and performance that she displayed in mine. So if I seem particularly harsh towards her, that'd be why.

Anzu is a ditzy, impulsive girl. That, combined with her awful stats, make her a walking manslaughter charge. She has killed more people by accident than some have killed on purpose.   This makes her a likely candidate to be voted out in the Pink Room or targeted with votes in the Main Game if she lets someone die in the cage. Her unreliability is dangerous, not just to her, but to everyone who's unfortunate enough to wake up in the same room as her.

With all this being said, it's important to identify what kept her from being dead last in survival rates. That would be due to her behavior in the crushing bed, where she will always use the key on herself, given the chance. This lowers her chance of being betrayed herself, but since she's unable to solve a puzzle to save her life (I mean this literally), she is effectively guaranteeing the death of her cellmate.

Some people just aren't built for a Death Game environment. It's nothing against Anzu as a person, but her impulsive nature and lack of useful skills make her a walking train wreck.  If only her mentor taught her how to squeeze out of handcuffs or constraints. That could've given her a fighting chance.

Shunsuke

- Mid Agility -

- Peak Smarts -

- Peak Trustworthiness -

I completely misread Shunsuke as a character. I always thought he was a person so scared of being hurt that he would keep his head down to save himself, even if it doomed the people around him and  ate away at his very soul. But now I see that he's a sweet guy who was overwhelmed by a dangerous organization whose motives he couldn't begin to comprehend. Not to mention, he is a lot more competent than his underwhelming demeanor lets on.

Shunsuke has saved helpless people like Gin in a lot of my simulations. Whether it's offering his key in the crushing bed or staying in the locker room prisoner's dilemma and patiently helping his partner through the puzzle, he's proven himself to be incredibly reliable. Not to mention, he really is a smart guy!  I just thought he was an entirely ordinary shmoe, but in reality, he's an excellent worker beaten down by an oppressive company. How I interpreted him in YTTD was a complete misinterpretation on my part, so I found watching him to be very educational.

Due to his helpful nature, Shunsuke was most likely to die in the First Trial. But should he survive, he typically had a pretty smooth ride from there. He had solid odds of being the one to find Kai's laptop, earning him a great chance to avoid being targeted in the Main Game.  Shunsuke's ability to avoid making enemies proved to be a huge asset, but unfortunately, his kindness was often taken advantage of in the First Trial for him to go very far.

Kugie

- Low Agility -

- Mid Smarts -

- High Trustworthiness -

I'll be honest, I had really high hopes for Kugie. In my very first game, she was as Sacrifice, and I thought that was just the beginning for her. But ever since, she never came close to that level of mastery in the Death Game.

But let's not be too hard on her. For who I assumed was just an average high schooler, she seems to have a lot of influence, being a likely challenger in Russian Roulette. This, combined with her ability to cooperate in the locker room prisoner's dilemma, shows her affluent social game.

Unfortunately, that's the limit of her capabilities.  She won't make it very far by herself, and her low agility and smarts means she's unable to save those who need her help the most. Worst of all, her sister's high likelihood of dying in the First Trial means she's likely to use the First Vote to kill whoever betrayed her, which makes her an even likelier target in the Main Game.  While a part of me genuinely thinks she'd have much better odds if Kanna weren't in the Death Game, I really don't think Kugie's sister is holding her back all that much.

Megumi

- Peak Agility -

- Peak Smarts -

- Low Trustworthiness -

I hate to admit it. I REALLY hate to admit it. But watching this crooked cop weasel her way around the simulations was a lot of fun. Kinda like watching Tony in Survivor.

The scariest thing about Megumi is she reminds a lot of Sara. Strong-willed and determined to preserve herself at all cost, but with the  jarring ability to play the role of hero or villain in any particular game. In one simulation, she's  leaving Gin for dead in the locker room prisoner's dilemma, hiding in the Red Room to avoid the First Vote, only to be ostracized in the Main Game. Then in another simulation, she'll be the righteous hero, playing challenger in Russian Roulette and finding Kai's laptop, only to be killed by Keiji in the Pink Room. Despite her stats being perfect for survival, the hatred Keiji feels for her creates a massive problem for her.

For Megumi to win, she needs a lot to go right. The best case scenario is for Keiji to die and for her play the heroic role instead of going to the Red Room. Otherwise, she'll be a likely candidate to receive the majority vote in the Main Game, and at that point, she's just praying for Kai to get it instead. If Keiji does survive, it's the complete opposite: Megumi NEEDS to clear her First Trial before anyone else so she can take shelter in the Red Room and avoid the First Vote.

These completely opposite strategies that she needs to rely on depend on Keiji's fate in the First Trial, something that is almost always out of her control. But all of this talk of Keiji leaves me wanting to ask you a peculiar question. We know that Keiji hates Megumi, but what does Megumi think of Keiji?

See, the funny thing is that we have no idea in YTTD. But in Soy Toad, I had two remarkably interesting events occur that reshaped how I view Megumi.

In one instance (it might have even been my 50th simulation), Megumi and Keiji were stuck with three other participants in the Blue Room, deciding who should be challenger for Russian Roulette. I had assumed Megumi would get it for free, since she's one of the most likely players to get it along with Joe. But lo and behold, the challenger was determined to be... Keiji??? I had a hilarious thought as to the only way I could see those events actually taking place, and I decided to run with it. Since Megumi was there, Keiji couldn't open up to the others about his trauma with holding a gun.   And rather than let Keiji get away easy and slink to the back of the room, she insisted he was the best man for the job, effectively teasing him and forcing him into the most traumatic situation possible. Keiji would try to defer, but then he'd lose the trust of everyone there, and Megumi would win influence over them. His life had already been destroyed by Megumi's control over people, so he had to take her up on it, leading to what I could only imagine to be the sweatiest, shakiest, loud-panting challenger in Russian Roulette history.

Now, why do I think that Megumi would go so far as to taunt and torture Keiji in this way? That's because in an earlier game, Megumi was trapped in the Red Room and Keiji survived his First Trial, allowing both of them to make it to the Main Game. Since she was the only suspicious person that game, she was doomed to die... until she got the Sacrifice card. Of course, this meant she won. And guess who Megumi decided to bring with her? Keiji.

I can think of no other reason for her to save the man whose life she ruined besides wanting to toy with him. Is it possible she did this out of guilt? A means to make amends? Perhaps. But her ruthless gameplay and willingness to throw away the lives of everyone else that I've seen across all of those simulations makes me believe she is just awful person.

Now, I want to make it clear. I don't think she's a homicidal maniac the way that Midori is. I think she's indifferent to the deaths of others, with the exception of Keiji. She has a strong hold over destroying his entire life. Between that and her work position, it's no stretch to suggest she might get off on being in a position of power. This level of malice is something we don't see in any of the other participants. Even when Shin is acting as Sou, all the pain he inflicts is a complete and udder facade. But for Megumi, those hateful power plays are her in her rawest form.

------

Wow, that all that took two whole days to complete! The last thing I want to say is THANK YOU to   Lunet for making this game. Obviously, I had a blast playing it. If I remember correctly, I think you said you were busy with school or something. Well, best of luck on whatever you're doing! Whether you ever return to this project or not, part of my motive to make this post was to demonstrate just how much fun Soy Toad really is! I hope you feel proud of everything you accomplished.

And for anyone reading this, THANK YOU! I put a lot of time into documenting all of this and formulating what I hope was a thorough yet digestible analysis. I had ever more to say, but  this is already 22 pages long and I spent more than enough time on this one post. If people find this interesting, I might do another one, especially if we get a new update to the game!

Heya!

That's a really nice analysis right there ahah, it almost feels like you know the game better than I do. x')

I'll probably won't detail as much as you did how Soy Toad is working, since you're basically right to a lot of stuff, or at worst not that far from reality. But there's some stuff I kinda wanted to add:

- I did use a stat system (I named them Strenght IQ and Kindness, which basically do the same as the one you've thought) but I also used a "Sociability" stats that was used sometimes, even if it might not seem like it, if I remember correctly this stat explains why Joe would be more often choose to be the challenger. You might also notice that Megumi was a lot by herself when people tried to find the pieces of Miley, that's because of that too.

- Your theory of there being a priority system in terms of "who betrays whom" is somewhat right, but it wasn't really chose by me, the game just take the two characters and compare their stats (the stats are numbers going from 0 to 100 btw) and would kill the one with the worst score (I'm not sure but I think in case of an equal score it would randomly choose the character).

- In fact, the game was thought to be able to let the player customize their game by putting their own character, like the hunger games simulator website. The only big exception was Kai's situation of having to hide his computer and act as he act in the game about it. The relationships between characters where also supposed to be customizable too, and for the fun fact, each character has a "level of trust" for each other character. I'm using that "level of trust" to set the relationships, lower it when a character loose their companion by someone else, and increase it when the character was saved by someone else (which include the First Trial and the traps in the Blue Room or the Cage trap, but also when they paired up in duo). This means that when you said Reko saved Kugie when she was sacrifice, it might be because they've spent time together.

- Since the game only works on the stats I give the character at the beginning, you might have understood by now that a lot of stuff about how the characters act wasn't that much decided by me, which would be right and wrong at the same time. I did set their stats to make sure that a vast majority of situations we know that happen in the "real" game would work the same in the simulations, and just basically make sure all the characters don't act too... out of character. However, as you already have showed in your post, I didn't quite thought of everything (Keiji can hold a gun OMG, Kai slapping Sara (this one would be so easy to change when I think about it))
I also choose their stats to make sure that when I play a lot of simulations, the leaderboard of characters' survival rates should be (approximatively) the same as the one we know in YTTD, which doesn't include Joe, Kugie, Kai and Nao, but since their own stats all affect at least one other character's survival rates I still needed them to get very precise stats.
And finally, people can't die in the Blue Room since there was already too much dead to just add even more of them lmao, I tried to make an average of number of survivors at 10 since that how many they lived in YTTD at the end of chapter 1. (And I remember myself having to nerf a lot of stuff in order to make less death lmao) I also no idea how to simulate someone going on a rampage killing as most people they can in the Blue Room.

-Hinako was made by the only stuff I know about her (And I mean, the real one): She's at elementary school and have suicidal thoughts. (we know those by the four paper saying she's in elementary school, and the suicidal thoughts are from the video tape you can obtain during chapter 2, where you can see her thank Rio Ranger for killing her.)


And with that I think I talked about everything that seems to be nice to share, thank you so much for plaing this game and put so much effort in it and its analysis! That was super fun to read!
And also I've already said that in response in another post, but I might put it here too (and probably in a devlog later ahah):
I've been working on a website version of Soy Toad! It will take a lot of time since I'm kinda discovering web programmation while doing it, but it's getting there and will have a customization feature to put everything you want (with some preset I would make too obviously). This will let me have a cleaner code than the one I have right now (bc yes I'll completely recode that in python this time) which will really nice to work with for future chapters too. The website will still work at least really close with how the itchio game works.
There will be a devlog for when the website is out, and an update to the itchio game that'll advertise the website too so you'll won't miss it :3

Until then, hope to see you around and hope you'll still enjoy playing Soy Toad!
(And again, thank you very much for that post, it always hype me up when I receive even little posts that shows how people still like playing this game, so this one means a lot to me!)

This was such an interesting read! Loved seeing all the observations you made

Thank you for cheering up my day :)