so after finally getting enough time and sample sizes together for the new update this is my findings on the RNG:
how I gathered the data: playing as Bella on normal difficulty and no other students so as to get a clearer picture of raw player mechanics without the noise of other students having random pieces of paper or struggling being weaker/stronger than normal, I did at least 100 attempts for each of the 4 categories; nothing in hand, paper, red apple, and green apple with crazy apples and small red apples being sampled at 10 due to their rarity and my unwillingness to spend 20 minutes looking for one 100 times, I then repeated this on all 4 predators with my escape attempts recorded being at 1, 2, and 3 since I consider 3 escapes to be reaching in terms of the average user getting caught
now to not make this a whole essay, I am going to condense it into category highlights here:
first escapes I recorded were merely up 4% compared to the older system, wile second attempts were down by 6% and third escapes being down by 18%
nothing in hand dropped by 12%, paper fell by 16% and all apples with the exception of crazy apples went up by 4-9% with crazy apples being DOWN by 6%, take note that since this sample size is drastically smaller due to chance it's around 1 or 2 failed escapes out of 30 per pred, and finally small red apples saw 0% change due to them having a 100% failure rate
for all 4 predators there was very little deviation in each escape attempt overall, with the exception of the 2 extremes of Tulpy and Ligeska, both of which had lower total escapes, Tulpy having a total drop of around 8% and Ligeska having a total escape attempt nearly 66% decreased with first escapes now only being less than 1% successful with her crazy apples only succeeding 1 time out of 10 and being the only one to get me out
overall my data is trending downward in successful attempts at all stages other than first having a minor uptick... I am unsure if the old escape chance is "base" chance that we go down to after multiple escapes or if the new system put's us below that threshold as it is more apparent there are massive dropoffs at 2nd and 3rd escapes
