I think that to make a living as an indie dev, you have to find a happy medium. I'm not going to bet on commercial success with the first games I publish. So really, I'm going ahead with the idea of trying things out and maybe I'll come to the same conclusions as you, but I've got to give it a go. Plus, I've got the advantage of being able to take my time a bit before I manage to make a living from this business. In France, where I live, I receive the RSA, which is a minimum income. It's a very important right (which is particularly under threat from current politicians, so I don't know how long this situation will last), but in the meantime it allows me to live on a minimum income without worrying too much about bills.
Also, I think the mobile market is saturated, but there are also a lot of people who download small games and don't mind paying small amounts. If I had to put a price on the game I imagine making, I wouldn't imagine more than $1.
But that's also because I'm not going to spend a phenomenal amount of time creating this game. My current idea is not to spend a year or two on a game that has to work at all costs. On the contrary, I'd like to create several small games that don't require more than a few weeks or months of investment. Less risk if a game doesn't work, and more sanity!