itch.io

"he's going to see way fewer Steam sales as people like me are not going to buy it as we feel let down!"

Lets run the numbers on that.

I'm from the US so assume all numbers are in American units (I.e. Dollars, cents, mm/dd/yyyy, footballs per guns).

Most of my data is from SteamDB which is a well enough trusted source for this kind of information.

The game launched on steam on November 19th. Scraping the sales data, its garnered between 3.4k - 6.4k from then to January 5th. It has an average daily player count of 60. Note: that this is Player and not installation. Steam typically does 1, 7, 14, 30, etc. for its player count metrics. Considering its 233 24hr peak and the absolute girth of content the game already has, its safe to assume within your regular 24 hour span it's a lot more that 60. The game currently sits at number 2416 of top selling games. Not Adult games, Not Visual Novels, GAMES. 

With the 95+ positive rating and nearly 2.5k followers waiting to see what's next, I can say with confidence that you and those like you are mathematically in the minority based on the raw data alone.

I could also prove statistically, by taking a large sample size and comparing the same data with other Visual novels that are in a similar state as this one. That is, games that are literally 1 (or a few chapters/updates) away from completion i.e. Chasing sunsets, Between two worlds, Cumona Beach, Adventures of a rookie superhero, etc. But most aren't on steam nor have plans to be there thus I'd have to compare itch.io numbers, which wouldn't line up with the domain of "Steam Sales"

Edit: Actually, if I form my hypothesis around specifically the claim you made that the absence of the chapter will significantly reduce sales, I think i can statistically prove you wrong as well. Bear with me as i haven't taken Stats since freshman year of college so I'm leaning on GPT & some discord friends of mine (with frankly WAY too much time on their hands) on this one.

First lets clarify the hypothesis:

Null Hypothesis (H0): Sales of the game will significantly decrease due to the lack of the final chapter.

Alternative Hypothesis (HA): Sales of the game will not significantly decrease (and may remain stable or even increase due to improvements in quality).

The claim that sales of the game will significantly decrease due to the absence of its final chapter is not supported by the available data. Despite the creator’s decision to focus on bug fixes and improving graphical renders instead of releasing the final chapter, player engagement has remained relatively stable. The average daily player count of 60, while lower than the all-time peak of 233 two months ago, shows consistent activity among a dedicated player base. Furthermore, a 95% confidence interval for daily players suggests the count is unlikely to drop below 56, indicating a steady core audience. This retention undermines the argument that the absence of the final chapter is driving players away.

Additionally, the overwhelmingly positive reception of the game suggests that quality improvements are resonating with the community. With 95.61% of reviews being positive and only five negative reviews, players appear to appreciate the creator’s efforts to enhance the game’s experience. The game also maintains a following of 2,456 users on Steam, indicating sustained interest. Positive reviews and a strong following typically correlate with continued sales, suggesting that the game is successfully retaining its audience despite the missing content.

Gross income estimates of $3.4k–$6.4k further demonstrate that the game continues to generate revenue. While sales data alone would provide a more direct measure, these figures, combined with stable player engagement and positive sentiment, contradict the notion of a significant decline in sales. Instead, the data suggests that the decision to prioritize quality improvements has mitigated potential concerns about the incomplete storyline, allowing the game to maintain its market performance.

Specifically,

We can construct a 95% confidence interval for the average daily player count (assuming it’s representative of overall engagement). Let’s calculate this:

Parameters:

• Mean daily player count (x̄): 60
• Estimated standard deviation (σ): Assume ±10 (based on variability in player numbers).
• Sample size (n): Number of days sampled (e.g., 30 days for a month).

CI = x̄ ± z ⋅ σ/n

For z=1.96 (95% CI):

The equation becomes

CI = 60 ± 1.96 ⋅ 10/sqrt(30)

This gives: CI=[56.42,63.58]

Interpretation:

The average daily player count is unlikely to drop below ~56 players over that fairly significant amount of time, suggesting engagement remains relatively stable.

Therefore UK_John, If  we just sampled this month and considered a "significant decrease" defined as average engagement dropping below 50, I can reject the null hypothesis with 95% confidence because the CI does not include values that low. Your assertion that "sales will decline due to the missing final chapter is speculative and not supported by the evidence". Now you could argue that "significant decrease" is loosely defined as "any decline" (which would be dumb, frankly), I'd concede that the current data does not robustly reject the null hypothesis. However it would still suggest stability which would still prove that you're in the minority.