So regarding the October 6th Confession, these four points are incredibly valid, but also - Some deviation from Carlos's route is okay, at least to get Carlos to confess to you - I had to miss a chance to hang out with Adam and Carlos to meet Jake and the group, for example, and declined when Jake asked my character out.
On October 6th, Carlos still confessed to me about his orientation, and that night I had a dream about Adam, so perhaps I'm on the right track?