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With a move of 4" through a 2'x2' board, and at most 3 fleets moving through a maximum of 36 systems, how could the Empire manage to lose key systems that quickly? They broadly only need 3 given the activation limits, and they do have an advantage in starting ships.

Because of the way the dice fall there’s usually one large cluster with branches (it looks like a galaxy). That cluster would be wiped in a turn or two if the Empire player didn’t have at least one ship in every planet, which is semi-unreasonable