I mentioned this in another thread but I don't really think the popular people are pre-determined to win the People's Choice prize.
Last year's winner was Team Tailnut with Quidget: The Wonder Weiner (https://teamtailnut.itch.io/quidget). They've returned this year with Pigglet in Mrs Big Bad Werewolf (https://teamtailnut.itch.io/pigglet2igmc). They also have a Patreon where 372 people give them a total of $4,117 per month (https://www.patreon.com/peninja). You'd think that'd make them unbeatable from the perspective of a completely unknown newcomer but they're currently sitting at just 28 ratings (https://itch.io/jam/igmc2018/rate/336807). I'd also like to add that they started with 0 followers and 0 patrons, just like the rest of us, so they've earned that following through hard work and dedication.
Meanwhile, I'm a nobody to the RPG Maker and indie game making scenes but my entry, Bail: the Bounty Hunter, already has 5 ratings (https://itch.io/jam/igmc2018/rate/335497). In fact, if you check the 'games in need of ratings' link, you'll see the absolute lowest number of ratings for any entry so far is 3 ratings (https://itch.io/jam/igmc2018/unrated).
It's actually a much more even playing field than you might think.