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I took me 6 weeks to get it to pop, specifically trying to get that, with cheats enabled. Then me and friend got assaulted. I as playing an abstinent guy. Maybe abstinence makes it more difficult?
Side note: Dancing doesn't seem to be a skill you can learn, is everybody constantly terrible at the dancing at the party?

My best theory is that it's linked to the Physical skill (it would make sense, if nothing else), so you'll need to go to the gym or something, but it is possible to succeed on the check. Or it could be related to your party popularity, etc., hard to say.

At present, the only reliable (though not very) means I have found to improve your Dancing skill is to have a computer & a Livestreaming account & put on Dancing streams.  When Dancing became something you could do at the Friday night parties, I was very happy, until I also noticed that even successful Dancing tests there don't seem to advance your Dancing skill.  I hope that is just a bug that will get fixed eventually.