I assume it's different on every route (if you're on her path she explains it's because she didn't know how to deal with her Feelings™️ for you, and presumably once we have the rebel origin playable there will be a very obvious reason why), but otherwise this never gets explained and I'm really curious about it!!
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Gisette's reasoning are known to me, but thank you so much for taking your time wanting to help ^^much appreciated.
In regards to the assassin before the ball, I concluded these information on him:
- he is linked to the Weavers most likely
- If you are an Aly of Avalie: in the moment of her event we learn more about the weavers (also reading between her lines is advantageous)
- through my multiple different walkthroughs of the game I noticed) that he only attacks if we are an impressive enough MC ( excelling at hosting events, the trial etc., discovering enough secrets and having the right amount of skills)