Very.
There are some obvious red flags, like password protected archive and the dev asking you on discord to try his game, or the game asking for admin rights. The last one is not only against potential malware, but against amateur devs screwing with your system installation.
It helps if the game is a few months old, has lots of ratings and an active community. Most dubious games you will find in the most recent browse section. But also in new & popular. But some malware is put onto hacked accounts.
There's thread warning about it: https://itch.io/t/1659440/psa-beware-the-try-my-game-scam
A common factor about scammers is that they tend to steal art from legit games, the idea is if they want to trick somebody into downloading their virus they gotta make it convincing, so if you search the images they use in their page and find other games or existing projects, it's definitely a red flag. I reported a few like those myself in the past.
I'm the type that downloads a few hundred games a year from Itch. There are red flag projects, like no art, people in the comments saying "dude, it's a virus." There's only been one game that my 2 (or 3) antiviruses labeled as a virus. It was quite a popular horror game too, from a group that had made several popular horror games, so I assume it was a false positive. I've worked on a project that registered the game a false positive, because there was a version checker to let players know if they had the most current version.
